Whether this crisis gets resolved short of war depends greatly on China’s willingness and ability to rein in North Korea.
In the past China has been content to let the situation in Northeast Asia stay at a low boil to keep the South Koreans, the Japanese and Americans off balance. But the situation now threatens to boil over.
The calculation for China has changed.
If North Korea continues down this road, Japan could rearm and South Korea decide to go nuclear, especially if they sense a lessening of America’s mutual defense commitment.
If the North Korean regime collapses, millions of poor and malnourished refugees would stream across the border into China stressing an already stressed Chinese economy. China’s recent mobilization at the North Korea border is as much to keep those refugees out as a show of solidarity with North Korea.
If a weakened North Korea unites with South Korea to form the East Asian equivalent of a United Germany – economically powerful, but with a strong, possibility nuclear capable military – would be China’s worst nightmare.
For the first time, China has real incentives for resolving the annual North Korean crisis. There are indications at the United Nations and elsewhere that China is losing patience with North Korea.
It is time for the U.S. and China to reopen a strategic dialogue to deal with a host of issues, especially how to deal with North Korea.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/
Some related comments:
- Petr-Martine Masner What if China just really wants to start wars and go expansive, for example to Siberia and the Pacific region, then a crazy North Korea would be the ideal scapegoat for having started aggression...
- Timothy Elder Petr-Martine Masner I agree. I think China's long term vision is to recover hegemony in East Asia. The question they must always be asking themselves is "Are we ready yet?"
They know their military is becoming stronger and that the U.S. military is grows weaker. But when do these two trend lines cross? The current crisis helps China judge how close they are to being able to openly challenge the U.S. in East Asia.Petr-Martine Masner So South Korea should contain and embrace North Korea, and get it out of the influence of China. After all, "blood is thicker than water". Same, like Europe should contain and embrace Russia.
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